Previously, the UN emphasized that earthquakes are the deadliest among natural disasters and called on Central Asian countries to be prepared for such risks. It was also noted that some regions of Uzbekistan, especially the Fergana Valley, are among areas with high seismic risk.
According to Ulfat Nurmatov, head of the laboratory at the Institute of Seismology, such information should not cause panic among the population.
“We should not believe alarming reports. The territory of Uzbekistan has historically been a seismically active region. There are geological faults here that cause earthquakes, and their seismic potential has been thoroughly studied scientifically,” the specialist said.
According to him, assessments have been made regarding the highest magnitude earthquakes that could occur in the territory of the republic and neighboring countries, and special seismic maps have been developed. Today, all buildings and structures are designed and constructed based on these maps.
The specialist noted that strong earthquakes have been observed before in the territory of Uzbekistan and neighboring countries. In particular, the last major earthquake in the Fergana Valley was recorded in 2011 due to a tremor in Kyrgyzstan, with a magnitude of 6.4. Since then, no earthquakes of such strength have been recorded, while tremors with magnitudes of 5–5.5 are regularly observed.
Ulfat Nurmatov stated that geological faults with the greatest seismic activity are mainly located in the territories of Tajikistan and the Pamir region, where earthquakes with magnitudes up to 7 can occur. However, their impact on the territory of Uzbekistan does not exceed 9 points.
Additionally, there are frequent earthquake epicenters in the territory of Afghanistan. However, because they occur mainly at depths of 250–300 kilometers, they do not cause severe destructive consequences in Central Asian countries.
Relying on the seismic map of the Fergana Valley, the specialist stated that more than 90 percent of the area falls into an 8-point seismic zone, and even if the existing geological faults demonstrate their maximum potential, the tremor intensity will not exceed 8 points. It was noted that only in some small areas of the Andijan region could it reach up to 9 points.
“Over the next 50 years, the probability of an earthquake stronger than 8 points occurring in this area is only 5 percent. That means the probability of such an event not occurring is 95 percent. Therefore, there is currently no reason for the population to panic,” said Ulfat Nurmatov.
For reference, in June 2025, the Ministry of Emergency Situations also denied reports that a strong earthquake would occur in Uzbekistan due to magnetic storms.
