By 2030, 600 million people on our planet will face famine, while 2.8 billion people will be deprived of healthy food.
In a word, the world is on the verge of the most terrible famine in the last decades. This threat is intensifying due to a combination of factors such as climate change, political conflicts, economic difficulties, and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Global food systems are under unprecedented pressure. If urgent measures are not taken, millions of people could come to the brink of survival.
So, what factors contribute to the anticipated food crisis?
The impact of climate change
Climate change is one of the most critical factors affecting global food security. Global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in recent years, such events have occurred more frequently, damaging agriculture and reducing productivity. For example, in 2021, severe drought in East Africa deprived millions of people of food supplies, worsening the hunger situation in the region.
Agriculture, especially in developing countries, is showing to be very vulnerable to climate change. Even minor changes have a significant negative impact on agriculture.
According to the World Bank's calculations, if current trends continue, up to 143 million people may be forced to leave their homes by 2050 due to food and water shortages. A new class of migrants - “climate migrants” will emerge. While labor migrants leave for better jobs and a prosperous life in other countries, “climate” migrants move to countries where favorable weather conditions are preserved, without the problem of water for drinking and agriculture.
Agriculture will also decline due to climate change. As a result of reduced productivity, food prices may increase by 20-50% in the coming decades.
Political conflicts and their consequences
Political conflicts and civil wars are also a significant factor in global hunger. Conflicts destroy existing infrastructure, disrupt food supply chains, and annihilate agricultural production. For example, in Yemen, where the civil war has been ongoing for more than six years, 16.2 million people do not have enough food, and more than two million children are on the brink of hunger. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), more than 60% of the population in countries affected by conflicts suffer from hunger.
Or another example. The war in Ukraine, once one of the world's largest grain exporters, has also significantly impacted global food markets. Together, Russia and Ukraine provide nearly 30% of global wheat exports. However, when Russia invaded Ukraine and started the war, global market grain prices skyrocketed, significantly affecting countries in Africa and the Middle East. For instance, in countries like Kenya and Ethiopia in East Africa, reliance on imported wheat has raised the main food prices, further exacerbating the hunger problem.
The economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic
The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the global economy and led to the deterioration of food security. The pandemic disrupted food supply chains, increased prices, and turned millions of people worldwide’s access to food into a problem.
According to the World Bank, in 2021, nearly 97 million people lived in extreme poverty, and almost 800 million people suffered from hunger, which is 150 million more than in 2019.
In 2022, the World Food Programme warned that 45 million people in 43 countries were at risk of dying from hunger due to the pandemic and other factors. The pandemic led to economic instability in Latin America and the Caribbean, where inflation reached 12%, causing many families to lack access to basic food types.
Population growth and food scarcity
The increasing world population is also putting pressure on global food systems.
According to the UN, by 2050, the global population might reach 9.7 billion, requiring a 60% increase in food production. However, current agricultural systems are already struggling to meet current demands.
In Africa, where the population is growing most rapidly and expected to increase further, the hunger problem could reach catastrophic levels. Already, 278 million people on the continent are suffering from hunger. If urgent actions are not taken, this number could double by the middle of our century. Food crises resulting from the combination of climate change, conflicts, and economic difficulties are becoming increasingly severe.
Reducing food waste
Inefficient use of food resources is also a principal cause of global hunger.
According to the FAO, a third of all food produced worldwide becomes unfit for consumption or is wasted. Hence, a large portion of the produced food never reaches its true owners - the needy, further aggravating the hunger problem.
In low-income countries, food wastage often occurs during production and storage stages. In high-income countries, most waste occurs at the consumption stage. Reducing food waste and improving food distribution systems can lead to significant changes and reduce global hunger.
Conclusion
The world is facing a real threat of global hunger resulting from climate change, political conflicts, economic problems, and population growth. Without urgent and coordinated international measures, millions of people could face disaster.
Sustainable agriculture, adaptation to climate change, reforms in food product distribution systems, and measures to reduce food wastage have become pressing issues. Only the collective efforts of the global community can prevent a disastrous future and ensure food security for future generations.
Abdulloh Sayyid
