According to EBRD lead economist Beata Javorcik, economic growth in the country is slowing against a backdrop of high inflation. The main reasons cited are tight state finances and external restrictions imposed on oil and gas exports.
According to a forecast by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, the country's GDP growth in 2025 will be only 1% (compared to 4.3% in 2024). The government is prioritizing military spending in the new budget draft – in 2026, 38% of funds will be allocated to the army, police, and special services.
The EBRD also lowered its forecast for Ukraine: the country's economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2025. This is due to the consequences of the war, low harvests, and a shortage of labor.
